CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2016-01-15T00:00:00-CME-001)

## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2016-01-15T17:09:45Z
## Message ID: 20160115-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

S-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2016-01-15T00:00Z.

Estimated speed: ~483 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 31/-30 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).

Activity ID: 2016-01-15T00:00:00-CME-001

 
Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that this CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2016-01-18T12:38Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).

Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2016-01-15T00:00:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160115_114300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160115_114300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160115_114300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160115_114300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160115_114300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20160115_114300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif


## Notes: 

This CME is associated with a large filament eruption seen on the SW starting around 21:45Z.  Due to the available imagery, these measurements are very rough.  Updates will be sent as soon as they become available.  

[1] http://iswawiki.gsfc.nasa.gov/wiki/index.php/Glossary/Heliospheric_Earth_Equatorial_coordinates

SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score


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